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October 16th, 2008
Canaccord Adams initiates coverage on AMAG Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMAG) with a Buy rating and $57 target.
Canaccord analyst says, "Binary event but we believe data should enable first cycle approval...We acknowledge that there is controversy about whether AMAG has generated enough data for ferumoxytol approval. We believe that the Phase 3 studies demonstrated the strong efficacy and (more importantly) clean safety profile of ferumoxytol in CKD patients. We think that data also suggests that ferumoxytol may have the best safety profile, and importantly the lowest rates of anaphylaxis, of all the IV iron therapies. However, given the conservative FDA environment, we recognize that AMAG could receive a late approval or a request for more data...We believe that AMAG shares offer a compelling risk/benefit profile. AMAG shares are down almost 50% from their 52-week high in October 2007. We base our $57 price target on a pNPV analysis that assumes a 50% probability of a first-cycle approval for ferumoxytol. If ferumoxytol is approved, our pNPV analysis would yield a $95 value. If the FDA requests an additional study, our pNPV analysis would yield a $25 value."
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