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November 29th, 2007
In a review of Nassim Taleb's book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, I described the book's central thesis: The world is governed by random, unpredictable events and people's attempts to predict the future by reading newspapers is not only a waste of time, it is toxic because it reinforces conventional wisdom.
John Naisbitt, the author of the best-selling Megatrends, disagrees with that book's theme. He reads more than 160 newspapers every day. (He has a staff to help him). It is his contention that the future is embedded in the present, and in his new book, Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future, he shows his readers other ways to look at the world and how he can discern the future from newspapers.
Another useful mind-set reminds people not to "get so far ahead of the parade that people don't know you're in it." For investors in robotics and nanotechnology, it is advice worth taking to heart.
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