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Home > News > Fast Takeoff: Exponential, or faster?

April 7th, 2009

Fast Takeoff: Exponential, or faster?

Abstract:
Molecular manufacturing will require R&D in many areas. Progress in these areas will happen at different speeds. MM will not have a big impact until a number of capabilities come together.

Hervé Musseau asks whether progress toward MM will happen exponentially, like the Human Genome Project, or according to the 80/20 rule where the last 20% is hard.

It definitely won't be exponential, overall; too many technologies have to come together, and each will develop at its own rate. But the flip side of that is that, once the last gating technology is developed, years of delay will be followed by rapid integration.

At least, I think the integration will be rapid, and this series of posts is written to explore the reasons why it will be.

Source:
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