Home > News > Foolish Book Review: "The Black Swan"
August 10th, 2007
Foolish Book Review: "The Black Swan"
One important lesson imbedded in these historical analogies is that what we don't know is frequently more important than what we do know (or think we know). This seemly innocuous statement is actually quite profound. Here's why. Throughout the book, Taleb offers compelling evidence that people -- especially so-called experts -- tend to overestimate what they know and underestimate the uncertainty that is derived from those things they don't know.
For example, how often have you heard experts in a given field make bold, confident statements? A case in point is the energy industry. These days it is not uncommon to hear specialists in the field say that oil, coal, and natural gas will remain the main source of energy for the next 30 years. Such statements can easily lead investors to believe ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), and Chevron are, and will remain, solid blue-chip investments for the foreseeable future.
The problem is the people making these predictions don't know what they don't know. For example, how much do they know about synthetic genomics, such as BP (NYSE: BP) is now investigating? Is it possible that "designer bacteria" and biomass -- and not oil -- could be a major source of our energy in the future? Or is it possible that one of the nanotechnology companies that Harris & Harris (Nasdaq: TINY) has invested in could produce a breakthrough that could revolutionize solar energy and make it cost-competitive with coal?
TARA Biosystems and Harris & Harris Group Form Company to Improve Safety and Efficacy of New Therapies October 22nd, 2014
Arrowhead Issues Open Letter to Shareholders October 9th, 2014
PEN Inc. Announces New Trading Symbol: PENC: Stock Continues Trading on the OTCQB September 3rd, 2014
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. to Present at Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference August 27th, 2014
Nano Ruffles in Brain Matter: Freiburg researchers decipher the role of nanostructures around brain cells in central nervous system function October 31st, 2014
'Nanomotor lithography' answers call for affordable, simpler device manufacturing October 31st, 2014
Device invented at Johns Hopkins provides up-close look at cancer on the move: Microscopic view of metastasis could give insight about how to keep cancer in check October 31st, 2014
Production of Biocompatible Polymers in Iran October 30th, 2014