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March 28th, 2007

Churchill Club Top Ten Trends Event

Jurvetson predicted that Moore's Law will continue but it will bifurcate. He predicted advances in memory would precede logic by several years. He brought up the self-assembly techniques of new nanotechnology materials. With self-assembly, you essentially splash a bunch of designer molecules onto a wafer and they organize themselves into patterns. Such materials will lend themselves to memory, which follows a redundant pattern. Logic, by contrast, takes too much design and nuance in the design. McNamee said he hoped Jurvetson was right because mobile devices would need an "ungodly" amount of low-power, small form factor memory. Doerr said he believes that chip companies will have to be able to create an advantage in process manufacturing, not just design. Graphics chip makers such as Nvidia, he said, are exceptions where design matters the most. Over time, he said he expects large players will roll over rivals who don't have any process advantages.


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